Peter Worden's Blog

With SPY looking tired, it is logical that SRS may move higher from here. This 15-min chart shows a base of several days now in place and strengthening technical indicators, i.e. TSV and MACD. Price moved back above its 50-bar moving average (orange line) early this morning and has held above it for the entire session.

TSV really turned positive yesterday and has continued to hold pretty much above the zero-line. MACD turned positive several days ago and remains short-term bullish.

This 30-minute chart of SPY spans back about three weeks to February 23. I have drawn in some trend lines to illustrate the short-term upside reversal, which occurred on Tuesday’s open. SPY gapped sharply higher breaking through the downtrend line drawn from the Feb. 26 high. SPY is now in a minor uptrend which can be defined by my yellow trend lines. It is important for any pullbacks to hold at the lower uptrend line.

TSV (center pane) crossed up through the zero-line at about the same time price broke out earlier this week. The indicator remains in positive territory. I would like to see TSV remain above the zero-line and ideally above its moving average.

Worden Stochastic also suggests strong price momentum, as it holds in overbought territory. I would like to see this stochastic hold above the 50 level on any price dips within the up channel (yellow uptrend lines).

USO is an Exchange Traded Fund I use to track the price of oil. USO may be rounding out a tradable bottom at these levels. I have applied my Volume Weighted MACD to this daily chart of USO. The MACD is displayed in the center pane. I have also colored my price bars green when the MACD is positive and red when the MACD is negative. Although USO has continued to slide lower, MACD suggests a progressively improving technical condition in recent months.

Worden Stochastic also shows an encouraging pattern as it turns up from a prolonged oversold condition. I would like to see the Stochastic surpass the early January level in convincing fashion. It is very close to testing that level right now.

Finally, price itself is testing its 50-day front weighted moving average right here, which I believe is an important test to pass.

Overall, I think USO offers a desirable risk-reward ratio for a long entry at current levels.    

Yesterday afternoon in TeleChart Platinum chat I wrote, “XLF should move higher from here.”
XLF actually moved lower into yesterday’s close, but is up nicely today and has potential for some follow-through on the upside. My hourly chart shows a constructive profile for MACD, TSV and Worden Stochastic. The volume-weighted MACD completed a positive crossover a couple of days ago (the start of the green price bars). TSV has been holding above its moving average over the past one to two days and now finds itself rather decisively above the moving average. It will be important for TSV to move up through the zero-line, as a result of this rally. And finally in the bottom pane, my Worden Stochastic is turning up with conviction (above the 50 level) from an oversold condition, which has persisted for nearly two weeks. XLF has moved up through my short-term downtrend line and is testing its 50-day price moving average where some resistance is likely to be encountered. Remember, I believe TSV’s test of the zero-line will be key to the sustainability of this rally.  

CPRT has begun to rally this past hour on signs of strong buying. The stock is up about 6% for the session and appears to have more room to run. We should soon see a test of last month highs at 28.38. Price has formed a subtle "W" bottom and has moved convincingly back above its 50-day moving average. TSV is breaking back above the zero-line and my Worden Stochastic has turned up sharply from oversold territory.  

I have made several positive comments in TeleChart Platinum chat over the past week or two. This morning just before the open I wrote, [1/27/2009 9:28:38 AM] (PeterWorden) "Healthy consolidation continues in TTES. I expect it will soon break higher."

The stock price has been holding above its 20-bar (40-day) moving average and has formed a small cup and handle. My volume-weighted MACD actually completed a positive crossover (on this 2-day chart) a few weeks ago when TTES rallied off the December double bottom.

TSV reversed its downtrend as price came off the December lows. In fact, the upturn in TSV actually preceded the upturn in price, hence a series of positive TSV divergence were created. TSV moved back above the zero-line a couple of weeks ago where it remains.

After spending several months pinned down in oversold territory, my Worden Stochastic has turned higher and is now approaching the 80 level. This suggests some strong upside momentum with this move. TTES may test the 50-bar (100-day moving average) from here.  

I have been saying for some time we absolutely must get participation from the financial sector if we are to see the general market get anything going on the upside. XLF is still well below its 50-hour moving average, but it is back above the 20-hour and the short-term technical indicators are improving. My volume-weighted MACD (on this hourly chart) has been in a buy mode since late Wednesday. Add to this the fact TSV just survived a test of its moving average on this morning’s sharp drop and my Worden Stochastic has turned up from oversold and is right on the cusp of crossing the 50% line. The XLF must still survive today’s final couple of hours of trading, which is saying quite a lot in these volatile times, but it does appear more upside potential exists here. I believe a test of the 50-hour moving average (white line) may well be in order. 

In TeleChart Platinum chat just a short time ago at 2:02 PM ET today I wrote, “I like the look and the feel of this rally.”

SPY has made a nominally lower low following the bounce attempt at the end of last week. As a result, my volume-weighted MACD gave us a head fake and our price bars went from green back to red again on this 30-min chart. Earlier today, SPY completed a successful test of yesterday’s close (almost to the penny) and has since pushed modestly higher. Notice the positive divergence which has now formed in TSV between Thursday’s low (Jan. 15) and today’s low. Price is now approaching a test of the 50-bar moving average, an obstacle which must be overcome if SPY is to carry beyond the highs of late last week.

I have continued to post favorable comments on RIMM through my Worden Notes in TeleChart. The stock price continues to make its way higher on respectable short-term technicals. MACD remains in a buy mode (green price bars), TSV and its moving average are above the zero-line and my Worden Stochastic has yet to rollover and move down from overbought territory. RIMM has had a rather impressive move from the early December low and I expect some overhead resistance to come into play at my lateral trend line if not before. My lateral trend line is drawn from the early November high. 

DIG needs to get back up through its 50-hour moving average, which it is testing right now. I am betting it does. This hourly chart shows a potential “W” bottom forming in price. My volume-weighted MACD is starting to turn bullish here and Worden Stochastic has turned convincingly up from oversold levels. TSV is still below the zero-line, but is above its moving average. I consider the later to be more important right here. Note the TSV characteristics of the rally from the mid December price lows. 

Moments ago I called BEC a buy in TeleChart Platinum chat. This daily chart shows a technically sound upturn from the December price lows. The green price bars indicate my volume weighted MACD is in a buy mode. TSV is now moving back above the zero-line for the first time in several months. Worden Stochastic showed good strength into the rally from the December low hence it wasted no time moving up into overbought territory. The stochastic continues to show healthy upside momentum. I would use the 20-day moving average as a mental stop for long positions, which means any close below the moving average would prompt me to sell.